December 2nd – 2020 Is Not Delivering The Same Seasonal Trends

 

December 2nd Arizona Real Estate Market Update Video Transcript

Hey everybody, welcome back to another episode of Market updates with azdigest.com. As always, if you’re looking to sell your home or need help buying a home in the Phoenix metro area, you can always reach out to us on azdigest.com. Thanks, as always, for listening to the market updates podcast. If you enjoy these episodes, please like subscribe, leave a review, it helps with all of the fun ranking stuff. So today is December 2, we just started the month of December. And so I wanted to talk about kind of seasonal trends in the real estate market, especially here in Phoenix, Arizona. Typically, as we progress throughout the year, and we come up at the end of the year, we tend to see some pretty typical things in terms of how many active homes there are in the market, and ultimately what the level of supply is. Of course, like typical 2020 we’re seeing some different things this year than we’ve seen in the past. So let me explain. Typically, at the end of the year, after Thanksgiving, and up until about the new year, things in real estate slow down a bit. There’s some people who don’t want to worry about buying home during the holidays. And there’s a number of people who don’t want to list their home during the holidays. And for that reason, we tend to see a spike of our supply number we’ve talked about that in the past month supply is a metric we use to kind of track how many homes are for sale, and how many people are actually buying homes. So that month’s supply number if you look at a big chart, and I’ve got one here in front of me, so if you click the link in the show notes, you’ll be able to see this chart dating back to 2011. You can see these basically spikes that come up every single year. And those spikes come usually they start in October, November, December, that month supply number is increasing, and it usually peaks around January. And then people start to go back to their normal ways of looking for homes, looking to buy real estate looking to sell real estate. And that month supply number starts to decrease again. Well, in 2020. And typical with the trend we’ve been seeing where there’s not a lot of homes for sale, there’s reduced inventory, and there’s a huge demand, we are not seeing that same spike this year. In fact, supply and that month supply metric has continued to go down the last couple of months. So this is interesting, if you were a buyer, as always that lower this month supply number is, the harder it is going to be for you to find a home, the more competition, you’ll see. And if you’re a seller, even though it’s the holidays, if you’re looking to sell your home now or in the next few weeks, is going to continue to be a good time for you to put that home on the market. Now, again, if you’re a buyer, you might hope this number starts to go up in January, or starts to increase here. In the next couple of weeks. Again, we’re coming up at the end of the year, people have Christmas and other holidays, there might just not be as much demand as much competition. So we might see this number start to go up. And so if you’re looking to buy to put yourself in kind of a unique position, you might want to continue to look and look at homes and put offers on things during that holiday stretch. But this is something we’re ultimately going to have to monitor. The month supply metric, I’m looking at the chart and again, if you click the link in the show notes, you’ll be able to see it too, as at 1.2. And that includes listings that are technically included under contract status as well. So it’s not only active listings, but active listings and under contract. But that 1.2 number is the lowest we’ve seen for this entire chart, which dates back to 2011, almost 10 years ago. So just real interesting to take a look at kind of the seasonal trends. And in 2020, those typical trends we might see aren’t happening. So this is something we’ll have to keep an eye out as we progress through December. And as we end up in January, and maybe we see a little bit of a spike, but I don’t know if it’s going to be quite as big as years past. So if you’re in the market to buy a house. Best of luck, right? It’s gonna it’s gonna be tough out there. It’s going to continue to be tough until we start to see a shift the other way. If you’re looking to sell again, now’s the time, you’re definitely going to have interest if you price it right in the market, right, whatever that looks like. So there’s anything we can help you with COR consultants. You know, please don’t hesitate to reach out azdigest.com. But this number just kind of stood out to me so happy to talk about it on this episode. I hope you enjoyed it. As always, please like and subscribe, check out azdigest.com if you’re looking to buy a home, or if you’re looking to potentially sell and we’ll catch you guys next time.